Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?

Analysis

Billboard reported on Oct. 5 that Taylor Swift's "Patient Zero" bounds in at No. 1 on the Hot 100, her 16th career leader. The report says the song stops the record reign of Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas," which had run up an unprecedented 24 weeks on top since February. The supplied material does not say which chart date the Swift debut belongs to. Billboard's schedule says charts dated Oct. 10 update on Oct. 6, so that is the likely home for it. The last dated chart in the evidence, Oct. 3, had "Choosin' Texas" at No. 1 for a record-extending 24th week. That week it drew 22.3 million U.S. streams, up 2%, and 57.9 million radio audience impressions, down 1%. It also sold 9,000 downloads, up 55%, for the Sept. 18-24 tracking period. It was steady, but a debut at No. 1 beat it, according to Billboard's report. That is why the forecast leans against a return to the top. To be No. 1 on the Oct. 17 chart, Langley's song would have to take the position back from a brand-new Swift leader after one more weekly cycle. Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" also returned to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 after its "Encore" expansion with four new tracks, per Billboard's Oct. 5 report. I can't rule out a rebound, because the Oct. 17 chart isn't published and the evidence doesn't include its data. The thing to watch is how far "Patient Zero" falls in its second week, and whether "Choosin' Texas" closes the gap on streams and sales.