Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

Analysis

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent on 29 September 2026, effective 30 September. The next decision is due at 2.30 pm on 3 November, after a two-day meeting starting 2 November. The forecast leans against a second consecutive 25 basis point rise at that meeting. The Board's own wording keeps the door open without walking through it. It said it will do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, "including increasing the cash rate target further if needed". That is conditional language, not a promise of a November move. Analysts are split, which is why this is a lean and not a certainty. Reports indicate Westpac and ANZ expect another November increase, while NAB and Commonwealth Bank expect a pause. Inflation data is the other piece. The Bureau of Statistics published its monthly CPI on 30 September. One source reported a rise of 4.0 per cent, but its period labelling is unclear, so I won't lean on it. Another report said the CPI came in lower than expected, and that the chance of a November rise fell sharply as a result. That is a reported reading, not an official signal from the RBA.