Israel Military Action Against Lebanon prediction

The market closes March 31 (6 days away), meaning we're currently around March 25, 2026. March 20 has already passed. News reports confirm Israeli strikes began on March 23 (Qasmiyeh Bridge) and March 24, but no military action is reported specifically on March 20. The 15.7% probability (lowest among all dates) suggests most traders recognize March 20 passed without the specified military action. Later dates show 85-95% probabilities, confirming strikes occurred but after March 20. With the date already in the past and no evidence of strikes on March 20 specifically, this should resolve NO with high certainty.