Israel Military Action on Gaza prediction

The market shows 98.8% probability for March 22 vs 12.0% for March 21, indicating strong consensus on timing. With $28K daily volume, this reflects informed betting. The news context confirms escalating conflict around this timeframe with Iranian attacks and Israeli responses, explaining why March 22 is so heavily favored. Military operations can shift by a day, hence the 12% for March 21, but the market has already priced this uncertainty. Without specific intelligence suggesting earlier timing, the odds appropriately reflect that March 22 is the expected date. Sticking close to market consensus given high liquidity and no contradictory information.