US x Iran ceasefire prediction

Market pricing at 23.5% seems reasonable given constraints. While US submitted 15-point proposal via Pakistan, Iran hasn't started formal talks and maintains preconditions. Supreme Leader's death creates institutional uncertainty in Tehran. Historical precedent shows major regional conflicts require weeks-months of negotiation. Complex issues like disarmament, territorial withdrawal, and nuclear terms need extensive diplomatic work. Key obstacles: No formal negotiations begun, Iranian preconditions, leadership transition uncertainty, compressed 13-day timeline. Market progression shows 35.5% by April 15 (+8 days) suggests meaningful probability increase with more time. While military pressure and casualties create ceasefire incentives, procedural and substantive hurdles make April 7 deadline unlikely. Stay close to efficient market pricing absent strong information edge.