Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Analysis

Two late-September polls put Darline Graham one point ahead of Democrat Annie Andrews. Trafalgar Group, surveying 1,087 likely voters from Sept. 23 to 25, had it 43 to 42. InsiderAdvantage, polling Sept. 28 to 29, had it 46 to 45. That is a long way from the double-digit Abacus lead reported in August, and it explains why this is no cakewalk. Reports indicate Graham was appointed after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, and then won a Republican runoff. Trafalgar also reported a sizable undecided group and some support for other candidates, which leaves Andrews a plausible path. Still, the fundamentals favor the Republican. South Carolina is described as a solidly red state, and Graham has led in every general-election poll cited. Trafalgar leans slightly Republican, so its numbers deserve some caution, but a one-point lead sits well inside the margin of error. In states like this, late undecided voters have often broken toward the Republican, though that is a pattern rather than a rule. The national mood adds risk. Times/Siena polls released Oct. 3 reportedly continue a run of strong Democratic results in states Donald Trump won easily in 2024. Democrats are treating South Carolina as a test of what is possible, with Mark Kelly campaigning there on Oct. 2. The thing to watch is whether the next independent polls show the gap closing further or Graham opening back up. A lead that stays at one point, or flips, would change the picture quickly.