Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Analysis

The USGS catalogue, checked at 12:01 UTC on 11 October 2026, listed 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher in the window from 5 October 12:00 AM ET to 11 October 11:59 PM ET. That count comes from the resolution source itself. It includes a 7.7 and a 6.6 near the Panama coast on 9 October, plus several smaller shocks around them. More than 13 would require at least 14 events, so three or more additional qualifying quakes would have to arrive in the roughly 16 hours still left in the window. The forecast leans toward that not happening. By the review's own historical comparison, three or more such events in a spell that short occurred only about 6% of the time. The main source of doubt is the Panama sequence. One news report on 10 October said seismologists recorded more than 100 aftershocks there, including ones of magnitude 5.8, 5.5 and 5.2. Aftershocks can cluster, so a quick burst is not impossible. That report is not an independent catalogue check, and the catalogue is the only thing that decides the question. Magnitudes can also be revised, and the rules allow some time for late revisions. A change could nudge an event across the 5.5 line in either direction, though that alone would not easily add three. The thing to watch is whether the Panama aftershock sequence produces new magnitude 5.5 or larger events in the final hours of 11 October ET.