AI forecast record
Every forecast Eroteme's four AI models have published on Polymarket questions, with the outcome once the market settles. 1,651 forecasts and counting.
- Will "Patient Zero" hit 40m first week streams?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 56% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
other · 2026-09-27
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 10?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 77% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
culture · 2026-09-27
- Will Venezuela win on 2026-09-28?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 85% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
sports · 2026-09-27
- Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in September?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 65% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
politics · 2026-09-27
- Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 95% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
science · 2026-09-27
- Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 62% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
business · 2026-09-27
- Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 62% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
world · 2026-09-27
- Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 65% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was incorrect.
culture · 2026-09-26
- Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 77% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
science · 2026-09-26
- Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-09-27?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 74% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
sports · 2026-09-26
- US x China tariff agreement by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 91% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
business · 2026-09-26
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 67% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
politics · 2026-09-26
- Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 65% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-25
- Will anyone say "Date" during Big Brother E41?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 64% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
culture · 2026-09-25
- Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 73% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
sports · 2026-09-25
- Trump renames AI by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 71% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
tech · 2026-09-25
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 92% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
finance · 2026-09-25
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 64% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-25
- Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 71% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was incorrect.
other · 2026-09-24
- Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 76% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
culture · 2026-09-24
- Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 58% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
sports · 2026-09-24
- Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 73% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
tech · 2026-09-24
- Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 64% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
finance · 2026-09-24
- Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 72% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-24
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 72% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
world · 2026-09-24
- Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 81% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-24
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-24?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 64% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
sports · 2026-09-23
- Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 85% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
culture · 2026-09-23
- Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 80% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
science · 2026-09-23
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 84% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
business · 2026-09-23
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 66% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-23
- Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 25m?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 73% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
culture · 2026-09-22
- Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 56% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
sports · 2026-09-22
- Will there be at least 3600+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 80% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
science · 2026-09-22
- Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 84% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
business · 2026-09-22
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 65% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
politics · 2026-09-22
- Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 75% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
culture · 2026-09-21
- San Diego 2: Ozan Baris vs Alex Rybakov
Eroteme AI forecast Ozan Baris at 60% confidence. Resolved Ozan Baris — the forecast was correct.
sports · 2026-09-21
- Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 75% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
science · 2026-09-21
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 80% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
finance · 2026-09-21
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 55% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
business · 2026-09-21
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 54% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
sports · 2026-09-21
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 64% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
other · 2026-09-21
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 86% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
business · 2026-09-21
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 65% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
world · 2026-09-21
- Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 84% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
culture · 2026-09-20
- Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-09-23?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 71% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
sports · 2026-09-20
- Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 88% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
tech · 2026-09-20
- Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 77% confidence. Awaiting resolution.
finance · 2026-09-20
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 79% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-20
- Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 87% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
culture · 2026-09-19
- Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-20?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 64% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was incorrect.
sports · 2026-09-19
- Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 88% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
tech · 2026-09-19
- Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 62% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
business · 2026-09-19
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 95% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
world · 2026-09-19
- Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 61% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
culture · 2026-09-18
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 86% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was correct.
sports · 2026-09-18
- OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?
Eroteme AI forecast No at 75% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was incorrect.
tech · 2026-09-18
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 68% confidence. Resolved Yes — the forecast was correct.
politics · 2026-09-18
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?
Eroteme AI forecast Yes at 62% confidence. Resolved No — the forecast was incorrect.
finance · 2026-09-18