Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries

Analysis

Atlanta has not lost a game in these playoffs, yet the lean here is toward Golden State, and the Dream winning Game 1 is the less likely result. The game is at Chase Center in San Francisco on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 3:30 p.m. ET, even though the fixture lists Atlanta as the nominal home side. Golden State finished two games ahead of the Dream in the regular season standings, and the Valkyries swept the defending champion Las Vegas Aces 3-0 in the semifinals. Their only playoff loss came in overtime to the Dallas Wings in Game 2 of the first round. Atlanta's run is just as clean, with a 2-0 first-round sweep of Washington and a 3-0 sweep of New York, and the Dream won nine of their last 10 regular-season games. The gap comes down to availability. Official records list Allisha Gray as day to day with a hand injury, and reports say she was limited in practice on Thursday and that her Game 1 status is a game-time call by the medical staff. The Dream won the last semifinal game without her, but Brionna Jones is also out for the season with a leg injury. The Valkyries' only listed absence is Iliana Rupert, out for the season for pregnancy, and the Valkyries otherwise appear healthy, according to reports. Defense should dominate, as reports rate these two teams first and second on that end this season. That makes a single scorer's absence more costly in a low-scoring game. The thing to watch is whether Gray is cleared to play. If she plays and is effective, the picture tightens considerably.