UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Analysis

Slight lean · No 59.72%. This is a modest probability edge, not a high-certainty outcome. Petr Yan landed five takedowns on Merab Dvalishvili in their December rematch, the most Dvalishvili has yielded in a UFC bout, and he won by unanimous decision. That result ended Dvalishvili's 14-fight win streak and returned the bantamweight title to Yan. The trilogy at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi is scheduled for Saturday, October 24. The forecast leans toward Dvalishvili not winning, and the rematch is the main reason. Reports say Yan visibly hurt Dvalishvili in that fight and used his own wrestling effectively. Yan comes in on a four-fight win streak and, by the reporting, has raised his game considerably. He also says he has figured out Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili has his own case. He made Yan work throughout the rematch, and he won their first meeting by unanimous decision in 2023 after a UFC-record 49 takedown attempts. But he comes off a 10-month layoff that is unusual for him. One report says the jury is still out on whether he can add enough offensive variety and threat to take the title back. His camp has also raised a concern. Dvalishvili broke his nose in sparring in April 2026, and his coach said he chose not to have it fixed and expects it to bleed once he is hit. That is a reported worry, not confirmation of a problem. The thing to watch is whether Dvalishvili finds an adjustment to Yan's takedown defense and counter wrestling without losing the pace and pressure that define his game.